Standing on the shoulders of Giants

Thursday, June 17

Start as you mean to go on

Boston needs pitchers with an appetite for innings

It’s about that time of year. The Yankee’s lead in the AL East is 3.5 games—and growing. Why? Again?! You might ask.


Pitching, I might answer. Despite the vaunted Boston rotation, the Red Sox and Yankees pitchers appear evenly matched. After 550 innings of work, their difference in WHIP (walks + hits / IP) is disturbingly negligible: Boston 1.32, New York 1.31. They have logged team ERAs of 3.98 and 4.36 respectively, 2nd and 4th in the league. So it’s not just the standings that should make Red Sox fans nervous, because in recent weeks, the Yankee’s pitchers have caught up. And the closer they come, the further they stretch their lead. At the end of April Boston, thanks in no small part to their bullpen, were the best in The Show with an ERA of 2.95—a mammoth 1.37 runs better than New York—and were holding opposing batters to a miserly .224 average. It couldn’t last. It didn’t.
(Numbers denote AL rank)

March/April
______IP___ERA__SV__H__BB__SO_WHIP_SLUG_BB/9_K/BB_H/9_K/9

1.Bos
198.1 .2.95 . 7/8 . 164 .82 . 156 . 1.24 . . .347 . 3.72 . 1.80 7.44 7.08

4.N Y
204.0 .4.32 . 9/10 .210 .67 . 142 . 1.36 . . .430 . 2.96 . 2.00 9.26 7.26

The month of May was tough on both teams’ pitchers, with Boston’s starters showing signs of mortality, and New York’s offense signs of life. The Yankees’ staff quietly improved on their impressive command (BB/9,K/BB—usually a good barometer for success) while the Red Sox found themselves being hit both harder and considerably more often (see H/9).

May
______IP___ERA__SV__H__BB__SO_WHIP_SLUG_BB/9_K/BB_H/9_K/9

7.Bos
265.0 .4.55 . 5/7 . 278 .76 . 191 . 1.34 . . .416 . 2.58 . 2.40 9.44 6.49

8.N Y
235.0 .4.66 10/13 .251. 60 . 137 . 1.32 . . .420 . 2.29 . 2.00 9.55 5.23

This month, as the two staffs find themselves on the brink of statistical convergence, the Yankees have begun to capitalize. With their offensive juggernaut continuing to gather steam, the rotation has begun to turn in stronger and longer performances. Sometime this week, Yankee starters will overtake Red Sox starters in total innings pitched, despite using nine different ones this year (ten as of Tuesday), including the dicey Donovan Osborne on two occasions. The Red Sox rotation has been less democratic, but no less problematic. Behind Martinez and Schilling (more than 90 innings apiece) the rotation lacks horses as well as performances. Tim Wakefield has been largely inconsistent, while Derek Lowe, with just 63 innings in 12 starts, is probably wondering what he was thinking when he declined the $27m the Sox offered him in the spring.

June
______IP___ERA__SV__H__BB__SO_WHIP_SLUG_BB/9_K/BB_H/9_K/9

9.Bos .96.0 . 4.50 . 3/5 . 101 .34 . .64 . 1.41 . . .399 . 3.19 . 1.80 .9.47 6.00

6.N Y
111.0 . 3.81 . 8/8 . 113 .27 . .78 . 1.26 . . .379 . 2.19 . 2.70 .9.16 6.32

The Yankee’s pitching staff is, ominously, starting to jell. Anchored by Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown (in that order), and with the return to form of Mike Mussina (unbeaten since April 22) and a healthy John Lieber, that’s a lot of innings. With Mariano Rivera on hand to close all deals, it’s a lot of wins. Keith Foulke, for his part, has a 1.08 ERA yet only 13 saves. The Yankees have 27. In June their pitchers have posted better numbers across the board than have Boston’s, whilst continuing their decline in hits allowed, walks issued, and opposing slugging. If they continue to improve, the race for October could be over by September. Indeed, with little separating the Boston and New York offenses (OBP of .355 and .354; slugging .442 and .457) and pair of reliever corps than are borderline ironclad, the war in the East will be fought, and won, in the rotation. This is perhaps where the numbers perhaps tell us the most. Yankee’s starters have posted a 30-15 ledger. Boston’s, meanwhile have gone 27-21. In the end, quantity as well as quality—probably in the form of a bonafide fifth starter—should emerge to decide this, the tightest of races. It’s a great opportunity for some unlikely heroes. A resurgent Byung-Hyun Kim? David McCarty pitching seven scoreless frames and fielding first? El Duque, anyone?